Atletico Nacional 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

D. Pabón 87'

L. Pons 20'

3/26/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 182+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.99

Atletico Nacional

1.59

Independiente Medellin

0.99

Atletico Nacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 187 home / 182 away

1.84

creates per match

1.15

0.83

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.84

Independiente Medellin

1.15

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Independiente Medellin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

76%

Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

27%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

47%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

63%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

68%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.83 · 187 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 182 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.84 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.59

Independiente Medellin attack 1.15 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

51%

level

25%

Independiente Medellin scores more

24%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

Jordy Ararat

20'

L. Pons↳ D. Torres

31'

E. Cetré← E. Valencia

40'

45+5'

45+4'

45+7'

45+5'

46'

62'

65'

66'

G. Peña← Jefferson Duque

69'

Andrés Cadavid

75'

Ó. Perea← Jader

75'

D. Quiñónes← F. Pardo

85'

Edwuin Cetre

87'

D. Pabón

88'

D. Loaiza← E. Batalla

90+2'

Gianfranco Peña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoIndependiente

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots7

2Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target4

9Off Target2

1Blocked1

7Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

473Total Passes378

408Accurate Passes314

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 26, 2023.

Goals: L. Pons (20'), D. Pabón (87').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 1–1 Independiente Medellin