Atletico Nacional 2–0 Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

D. Mantilla 73'

J. Cabal 69'

3/7/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Nacional44%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

Atletico Nacional

1.27

Independiente Medellin

0.95

Atletico Nacional creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

0.77

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Independiente Medellin

1.12

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Independiente Medellin

0.76

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

72%

Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

61%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

25%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Independiente Medellin attack 1.12 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

44%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

28%

Atletico Nacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Cabal

Atletico Nacional · D

8.7

Match Events

20'

45+3'

45+2'

61'

69'

J. Cabal↳ D. Mantilla

72'

Adrián Arregui

73'

D. Mantilla↳ Jefferson Duque

76'

Dorlan Pabón

77'

Felipe Pardo

84'

N. Palacio← D. Pabón

87'

J. Arboleda← D. Loaiza

87'

D. Cambindo← V. Hernández

89'

T. Ángel← Jefferson Duque

90'

C. Devenish← E. Olivera

90'

Y. Guzmán← J. Barrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoIndependiente

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots14

7Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots14

8On Target5

4Off Target7

6Blocked2

10Inside Box8

8Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

461Total Passes317

387Accurate Passes251

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3