Atletico Nacional 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

J. Duque 61'

L. Castro 44'

2/29/2020

Primera A · Round 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Nacional44%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

Atletico Nacional

1.27

Independiente Medellin

0.95

Atletico Nacional creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

0.77

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Independiente Medellin

1.12

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Independiente Medellin

0.76

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

72%

Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

61%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

25%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Independiente Medellin attack 1.12 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

44%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

28%

Atletico Nacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Muñoz

Atletico Nacional · M

7.9

Match Events

44'

L. Castro↳ J. Caicedo

45'

Leonardo Castro

45'

Larry Angulo

53'

V. Hernández← G. Perea

61'

J. Duque

62'

Y. Díaz← L. Castro

62'

J. Cuesta← E. Mosquera

68'

J. Barrera← S. Gómez

70'

M. Cortés← J. Reina

74'

Jefferson Duque

74'

Y. Candelo← D. Quiñónes

77'

77'

80'

80'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoIndependiente

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots8

6Corners2

13Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots8

7On Target4

4Off Target1

10Blocked3

10Inside Box3

11Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

436Total Passes262

380Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides3