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Atletico Nacional vs Cortulua — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
9/27/2017Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atletico Nacional59%
×Draw23%
Cortulua17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.73
Cortulua
0.80

Atletico Nacional creates 116% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 36 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Cortulua
0.78

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Cortulua
1.64

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
83%
Atletico Nacional or Cortulua
77%
Draw or Cortulua
41%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
34%
Cortulua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
25%
Cortulua 1+ goals
55%
Cortulua 2+ goals
19%
Cortulua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
78%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
59%
level
23%
Cortulua scores more
17%

Atletico Nacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Cortulua

Atletico Nacional beat Cortulua 3-0 in Primera A on September 27, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.