Atletico Nacional 3–0 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Club Guarani

A. Andrade 52', 24'

J. Barrera 39'

3/19/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atletico Nacional45%

×Draw26%

Club Guarani29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.12

Atletico Nacional

1.45

Club Guarani

1.12

Atletico Nacional creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

1.36

0.88

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Club Guarani

1.36

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Club Guarani

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

71%

Atletico Nacional or Club Guarani

74%

Draw or Club Guarani

55%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

22%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

42%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

18%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

67%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

31%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

60%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Club Guarani defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Club Guarani attack 1.36 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

45%

level

26%

Club Guarani scores more

29%

Atletico Nacional at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Andrade

Atletico Nacional · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

Geisson Perea

10'

Miguel Benítez

24'

A. Andrade↳ Y. Candelo

36'

Antonio Marín

39'

J. Barrera

46'

Rodrigo Fernández← J. Morel

46'

47'

47'

52'

58'

58'

V. Hernández← S. Gómez

65'

A. Castro← J. Barrera

65'

J. Duque← A. Andrade

68'

F. Fernández← R. Bobadilla

68'

D. Villalva← A. Marín

72'

Á. Benítez← J. Florentín

75'

Brayan Rovira

80'

M. Chacón← B. Rovira

89'

Guillermo Benitez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoClub

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots9

3Corners8

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target1

7Off Target3

3Blocked5

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

566Total Passes335

503Accurate Passes267

89%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2