Atletico Nacional 2–3 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bucaramanga

D. Moreno 50' (pen)

G. Castellani 9'

M. Rangel 90+5', 38'

M. Vallecilla 20'

9/6/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Atletico Nacional52%

×Draw26%

Bucaramanga21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

Atletico Nacional

1.48

Bucaramanga

0.83

Atletico Nacional creates 78% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.77

creates per match

0.89

0.77

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

79%

Atletico Nacional or Bucaramanga

74%

Draw or Bucaramanga

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

27%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

56%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

20%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

71%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

52%

level

26%

Bucaramanga scores more

21%

Atletico Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Moreno

Atletico Nacional · F

8.4

Match Events

8'

Y. Góez← R. Loaiza

9'

G. Castellani↳ D. Moreno

20'

M. Vallecilla↳ J. Caballero

36'

38'

44'

48'

49'

50'

D. MorenoPenalty

54'

Daniel Bocanegra

55'

Y. Candelo← C. Rivas

61'

M. Núñez← J. Caballero

62'

Christian Mafla

71'

Michael Rangel

72'

J. Pérez← S. Cárdenas

74'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBucaramanga

Overview

64%Possession36%

25Total Shots6

9Corners0

24Fouls17

Shots

25Total Shots6

9On Target5

10Off Target1

6Blocked0

12Inside Box2

13Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

540Total Passes307

469Accurate Passes229

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

24Fouls17

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga beat Atletico Nacional 3-2 in Primera A on September 6, 2018.

Goals: G. Castellani (9'), M. Vallecilla (20'), M. Rangel (38', 90+5'), D. Moreno (50' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga