Atletico Nacional 2–1 America de Cali

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

E. Cardona 90+4' (pen)

W. Tesillo 85'

D. Vergara 58'

7/21/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%

×Draw25%

America de Cali18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.76

Atletico Nacional

1.57

America de Cali

0.76

Atletico Nacional creates 107% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.90

creates per match

0.79

0.73

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.90

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.73

America de Cali

1.24

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or America de Cali

75%

Draw or America de Cali

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

30%

America de Cali wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

America de Cali 1+ goals

53%

America de Cali 2+ goals

18%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

57%

level

25%

America de Cali scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Cardona

Atletico Nacional · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

Franco Leys

32'

Dairon Asprilla

46'

É. Balanta← F. Leys

46'

D. Vergara← Pipe Gómez

56'

É. Ocampo← E. Aristizábal

58'

D. Vergara↳ E. Velasco

69'

K. Parra← A. Sarmiento

69'

K. Viveros← D. Asprilla

70'

E. Valencia← R. Holgado

73'

William Tesillo

80'

P. Ceppelini← J. Zapata

80'

Á. Angulo← S. Velásquez

84'

J. Palacios← J. Escobar

85'

W. Tesillo↳ J. Campuzano

90+5'

Edwin Cardona

90'

Joan CastroPenalty confirmed

90+5'

J. Quiñónes← A. Mosquera

90+4'

E. CardonaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmerica

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots14

4Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target6

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

421Total Passes336

362Accurate Passes277

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 2–1 America de Cali

Atletico Nacional beat America de Cali 2-1 in Primera A on July 21, 2024.

Goals: D. Vergara (58'), W. Tesillo (85'), E. Cardona (90+4' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 2–1 America de Cali