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America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional — Copa Colombia 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
11/16/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali44%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.32
Atletico Nacional
1.00

America de Cali creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.43
Atletico Nacional
1.30

allows per match

America de Cali
0.71
Atletico Nacional
1.22

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
72%
America de Cali or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
56%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
73%
America de Cali 2+ goals
38%
America de Cali 3+ goals
15%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
63%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
26%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
61%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America de Cali scores more
44%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
28%

America de Cali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: America de Cali 2–2 Atletico Nacional

America de Cali and Atletico Nacional drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on November 16, 2025.