Atletico Nacional 3–0 Alianza Valledupar

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

A. Sarmiento 90'

J. Zapata 80'

F. Batista 11'

8/8/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%

×Draw26%

Alianza Valledupar17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.68

Atletico Nacional

1.52

Alianza Valledupar

0.68

Atletico Nacional creates 124% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.01

creates per match

0.68

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Alianza Valledupar

0.68

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Alianza Valledupar

1.04

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

83%

Atletico Nacional or Alianza Valledupar

74%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

30%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

20%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

49%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

15%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

78%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

57%

level

26%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

17%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Campuzano

Atletico Nacional · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

F. Batista↳ J. Bauza

28'

Ruben Manjarres

37'

Simon Garcia

46'

A. Del Valle← J. Osorio

46'

J. Munoz← R. Manjarres

52'

Fabián Mosquera

55'

A. Morelos← F. Batista

62'

J. Munoz← F. Pardo

63'

Leonardo Saldaña

63'

L. Perez← F. Mosquera

68'

M. Hinestroza← M. Moreno

68'

A. Sarmiento← B. Arce

74'

E. Cardona← J. Bauza

74'

J. Zapata← E. Rivero

77'

K. Moreno← Y. Rosales

80'

J. Zapata↳ M. Hinestroza

90'

A. Sarmiento↳ E. Cardona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAlianza

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots11

0.68Expected Goals (xG)0.66

5Corners6

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target6

2Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

434Total Passes337

374Accurate Passes277

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1