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Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
10/27/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.52
Alianza Valledupar
0.68

Atletico Nacional creates 124% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.01
Alianza Valledupar
0.68

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.68
Alianza Valledupar
1.04

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more
Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
83%
Atletico Nacional or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
30%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
78%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
20%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
49%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
15%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
78%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
57%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
17%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar

Atletico Nacional beat Alianza Valledupar 2-0 in Primera A on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.