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Atlético Monzón vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Huesca II
Huesca II
9/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Atlético Monzón40%
×Draw29%
Huesca II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.22
Huesca II
1.03

Atlético Monzón creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 80 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
69%
Atlético Monzón or Huesca II
71%
Draw or Huesca II
60%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
18%
Huesca II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
12%
Huesca II 1+ goals
64%
Huesca II 2+ goals
28%
Huesca II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
57%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Huesca II attack 1.32 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
40%
level
29%
Huesca II scores more
31%

Atlético Monzón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Monzón vs Huesca II

Atlético Monzón beat Huesca II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Isidro Calderón in Monzón.