Atlético Monzón 0–1 Fraga: Result & Stats

Atlético Monzón

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fraga

1/25/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Monzón48%

×Draw27%

Fraga24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MonzónExpected goals in this matchFraga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.90

Atlético Monzón

1.39

Fraga

0.90

Atlético Monzón creates 54% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 65 away

1.28

creates per match

1.06

0.74

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atlético Monzón

1.28

Fraga

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Monzón

0.74

Fraga

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Fraga →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw

76%

Atlético Monzón or Fraga

73%

Draw or Fraga

52%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

23%

Fraga wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

16%

Fraga 1+ goals

59%

Fraga 2+ goals

23%

Fraga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

66%

Fraga (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fraga attack 1.06 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more

48%

level

27%

Fraga scores more

24%

Atlético Monzón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff