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Atlético Monzón vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Caspe
Caspe
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Atlético Monzón45%
×Draw30%
Caspe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.19
Caspe
0.81

Atlético Monzón creates 47% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
75%
Atlético Monzón or Caspe
70%
Draw or Caspe
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
20%
Caspe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
12%
Caspe 1+ goals
56%
Caspe 2+ goals
19%
Caspe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
64%
Caspe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Caspe attack 0.89 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
45%
level
30%
Caspe scores more
25%

Atlético Monzón at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Monzón vs Caspe

Caspe beat Atlético Monzón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Isidro Calderón in Monzón.