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Atlético Monzón vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Atlético Monzón46%
×Draw30%
Belchite 9724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.23
Belchite 97
0.80

Atlético Monzón creates 54% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 95 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
76%
Atlético Monzón or Belchite 97
70%
Draw or Belchite 97
54%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
21%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
13%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
55%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
19%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
66%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
46%
level
30%
Belchite 97 scores more
24%

Atlético Monzón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Atlético Monzón 3–0 Belchite 97

Atlético Monzón beat Belchite 97 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Isidro Calderón in Monzón.