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Atletico Mogi vs Manthiqueira — Paulista Série B 2026

Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
FT
3 – 5
HT: 3 – 2
Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
Mario 45+4'
V. Hugo 44' (pen)
D. S. Nascimento Silva 23'
Unknown 72', 71', 63'
M. Henrique 29'
R. Alves 12' (pen)
6/8/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Mogi48%
×Draw22%
Manthiqueira30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mogi
2.02
Manthiqueira
1.58

Atletico Mogi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Mogi
1.40
Manthiqueira
1.35

allows per match

Atletico Mogi
1.80
Manthiqueira
2.65

finishing

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par
Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mogi ↓

Manthiqueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Atletico Mogi or draw
70%
Atletico Mogi or Manthiqueira
78%
Draw or Manthiqueira
52%

Winning margin

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
27%
Manthiqueira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
87%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
60%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
33%
Manthiqueira 1+ goals
79%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
47%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
61%
Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mogi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mogi attack 1.40 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Mogi scores more
48%
level
22%
Manthiqueira scores more
30%

Atletico Mogi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
R. AlvesPenalty
23'
D. S. Nascimento Silva
29'
M. Henrique
44'
V. HugoPenalty
45+4'
Mario
63'
71'
72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Mogi vs Manthiqueira

Manthiqueira beat Atletico Mogi 5-3 in Paulista Série B on June 8, 2024.

Goals: R. Alves (12' pen), D. S. Nascimento Silva (23'), M. Henrique (29'), V. Hugo (44' pen), Mario (45+4'), ? (63', 71', 72').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.