Atletico Mitre 1–1 Racing Cordoba: Result & Stats

Atletico Mitre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Cordoba

Germán Díaz 26' (pen)

C. Monti 79'

4/9/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 9Estadio Aurinegro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atletico Mitre47%

×Draw28%

Racing Cordoba25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MitreExpected goals in this matchRacing Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.88

Atletico Mitre

1.32

Racing Cordoba

0.88

Atletico Mitre creates 50% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 65 away

1.16

creates per match

0.85

0.90

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atletico Mitre

1.16

Racing Cordoba

0.85

allows per match

Atletico Mitre

0.90

Racing Cordoba

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mitre ↓

Racing Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Mitre or draw

75%

Atletico Mitre or Racing Cordoba

72%

Draw or Racing Cordoba

53%

Winning margin

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+

22%

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Mitre 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Mitre 3+ goals

15%

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

59%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

22%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)

65%

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mitre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.90 · 122 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mitre attack 1.16 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Racing Cordoba attack 0.85 + Atletico Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico Mitre scores more

47%

level

28%

Racing Cordoba scores more

25%

Atletico Mitre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Alessandroni

26'

Germán DíazPenalty

40'

L. Fernandez

43'

G. Diaz

55'

G. Ramirez

61'

F. Bustamante← Germán Díaz

61'

M. Ferrari← B. Mieres

62'

P. López← M. Suárez

62'

J. Mateo← E. Giménez

70'

M. Almiron

74'

C. Monti← F. Aman

74'

J. Méndez← J. Scolari

76'

F. Juárez← G. Ramírez

76'

N. Heiz← D. Romero

79'

C. Monti

82'

D. Aquino← D. González

85'

G. Ferrero

85'

90+1'

G. Tellas← A. Berrondo

Atletico

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Díaz

Manager: A. Grelak

61'▲F. Bustamante←▼Germán Díaz

61'▲M. Ferrari←▼B. Mieres

76'▲F. Juárez←▼G. Ramírez

76'▲N. Heiz←▼D. Romero

82'▲D. Aquino←▼D. González

Atletico Mitre substitutes

BustamanteFerrariJuárezHeizAquinoSánchezSotoBustosMayenfisch

Manager: C. Bossio

62'▲P. López←▼M. Suárez

62'▲J. Mateo←▼E. Giménez

74'▲C. Monti←▼F. Aman

74'▲J. Méndez←▼J. Scolari

90+1'▲G. Tellas←▼A. Berrondo

Racing Cordoba substitutes

LópezMateoMontiMéndezTellasCalderónOyolaMattaliaRinaudo

Match Recap: Atletico Mitre vs Racing Cordoba

Atletico Mitre and Racing Cordoba drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on April 9, 2023.

Goals: Germán Díaz (26' pen), C. Monti (79').

The match was played at Estadio Aurinegro in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.

Atletico Mitre vs Racing Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atletico Mitre vs Racing Cordoba