Atletico Mitre 1–0 Deportivo Roca: Result & Stats

Atletico Mitre

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Roca

F. Cadenazzi 90'

4/17/2019

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner (Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Mitre28%

×Draw32%

Deportivo Roca40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MitreExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Roca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.04

Atletico Mitre

0.83

Deportivo Roca

1.04

Deportivo Roca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

0.75

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico Mitre

0.67

Deportivo Roca

0.75

allows per match

Atletico Mitre

1.33

Deportivo Roca

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mitre ↓

Deportivo Roca →

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Atletico Mitre or draw

60%

Atletico Mitre or Deportivo Roca

68%

Draw or Deportivo Roca

72%

Winning margin

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals

56%

Atletico Mitre 2+ goals

20%

Atletico Mitre 3+ goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Roca 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Roca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)

42%

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mitre at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mitre attack 0.67 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Deportivo Roca attack 0.75 + Atletico Mitre defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Mitre scores more

28%

level

32%

Deportivo Roca scores more

40%

Deportivo Roca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Miguel← F. Gutiérrez

57'

J. Torres← L. Navarro

57'

D. Irizarre← A. Hurtado

67'

F. Ferrari← G. Vernetti

74'

G. Altamirano← S. Olmos

77'

B. Mieres← R. Strada

90'

F. Cadenazzi

Atletico

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Sialle

57'▲J. Torres←▼L. Navarro

67'▲F. Ferrari←▼G. Vernetti

77'▲B. Mieres←▼R. Strada

Atletico Mitre substitutes

TorresFerrariMieresBonanseaBoieroPérezIngratti

Manager: F. Fernández

46'▲F. Miguel←▼F. Gutiérrez

57'▲D. Irizarre←▼A. Hurtado

74'▲G. Altamirano←▼S. Olmos

Deportivo Roca substitutes

MiguelIrizarreAltamiranoRuizRiffoNajulGómez