Atletico Mitre 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela

Atletico Mitre

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico DE Rafaela

6/30/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Aurinegro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atletico Mitre45%

×Draw30%

Atletico DE Rafaela25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MitreExpected goals in this matchAtletico DE Rafaela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.82

Atletico Mitre

1.19

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.82

Atletico Mitre creates 45% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 110 away

1.16

creates per match

0.76

0.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atletico Mitre

1.16

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.76

allows per match

Atletico Mitre

0.89

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mitre ↓

Atletico DE Rafaela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Mitre or draw

75%

Atletico Mitre or Atletico DE Rafaela

70%

Draw or Atletico DE Rafaela

55%

Winning margin

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+

19%

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Mitre 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Mitre 3+ goals

12%

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals

56%

Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals

20%

Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)

64%

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mitre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.89 · 124 matches

Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mitre attack 1.16 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Atletico Mitre defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Mitre scores more

45%

level

30%

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more

25%

Atletico Mitre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff