Atlético Mineros 0–7 Laredo: Result & Stats

Atlético Mineros

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 5

Laredo

9/30/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Estadio Pepín Cadelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Mineros21%

×Draw24%

Laredo54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MinerosExpected goals in this matchLaredo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.67

Atlético Mineros

0.94

Laredo

1.67

Laredo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.09

creates per match

1.65

1.68

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Atlético Mineros

1.09

Laredo

1.65

allows per match

Atlético Mineros

1.68

Laredo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineros ↓

Laredo →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Mineros or draw

46%

Atlético Mineros or Laredo

76%

Draw or Laredo

79%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

Laredo wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

24%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

Laredo 1+ goals

81%

Laredo 2+ goals

50%

Laredo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

28%

Laredo (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineros at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineros attack 1.09 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Laredo attack 1.65 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Mineros scores more

21%

level

24%

Laredo scores more

54%

Laredo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff