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Atlético Mineros vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cayón
Cayón
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Estadio Pepín Cadelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Mineros27%
×Draw25%
Cayón48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineros
1.08
Cayón
1.54

Cayón creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineros
1.09
Cayón
1.40

allows per match

Atlético Mineros
1.68
Cayón
1.08

finishing

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par
Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineros ↓

Cayón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Mineros or draw
52%
Atlético Mineros or Cayón
75%
Draw or Cayón
73%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
10%
Cayón wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
10%
Cayón 1+ goals
79%
Cayón 2+ goals
45%
Cayón 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
36%
Cayón (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineros at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineros attack 1.09 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cayón attack 1.40 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Mineros scores more
27%
level
25%
Cayón scores more
48%

Cayón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Atlético Mineros 2–2 Cayón

Atlético Mineros and Cayón drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Pepín Cadelo in Reocín.