Atlético Mineiro W 3–0 Real Ariquemes W

Atlético Mineiro W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Ariquemes W

M. Paví 90+4'

Emily 61'

Soraya 25' (pen)

6/4/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Mineiro W68%

×Draw18%

Real Ariquemes W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro WExpected goals in this matchReal Ariquemes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.06

Atlético Mineiro W

2.46

Real Ariquemes W

1.06

Atlético Mineiro W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

0.50

1.63

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.04

Real Ariquemes W

0.50

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.63

Real Ariquemes W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro W ↓

Real Ariquemes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro W or draw

85%

Atlético Mineiro W or Real Ariquemes W

82%

Draw or Real Ariquemes W

32%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

45%

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

91%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

70%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

44%

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

65%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

29%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

82%

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Real Ariquemes W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.04 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.46

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.50 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

68%

level

18%

Real Ariquemes W scores more

15%

Atlético Mineiro W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

SorayaPenalty

58'

Jayanne← Luana Rodrigues

61'

Emily

65'

Geisi← G. Martínez

71'

Iara← Gabi Arcanjo

71'

Leidiane← Bárbara Melo

81'

Martinha← Nayra Pimentinha

85'

Katielle← Emily

85'

Milena← I. Guerra

90'

Alice← Thaísa

90'

Monik← Laura Marin

90+4'

M. Paví

Atlético

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Emily

⚽

Paví

▼

Guerra

58'▲Jayanne←▼Luana Rodrigues

71'▲Iara←▼Gabi Arcanjo

71'▲Leidiane←▼Bárbara Melo

85'▲Katielle←▼Emily

85'▲Milena←▼I. Guerra

Atlético Mineiro W substitutes

JayanneIaraLeidianeKatielleMilenaLayzaSpindlerBarrosTaynáTaluaneRaiara

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

65'▲Geisi←▼G. Martínez

81'▲Martinha←▼Nayra Pimentinha

90'▲Alice←▼Thaísa

90'▲Monik←▼Laura Marin

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

GeisiMartinhaAliceMonikNany