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Atlético Mineiro W vs Kindermann W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Atlético Mineiro W
Atlético Mineiro W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kindermann W
Kindermann W
3/27/2022Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Mineiro W36%
×Draw26%
Kindermann W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro W
1.34
Kindermann W
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 55 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro W
1.04
Kindermann W
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro W
1.63
Kindermann W
1.65

finishing

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par
Kindermann W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro W ↓

Kindermann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro W or draw
62%
Atlético Mineiro W or Kindermann W
74%
Draw or Kindermann W
64%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+
16%
Kindermann W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals
15%
Kindermann W 1+ goals
75%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
40%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)
49%
Kindermann W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Kindermann W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.04 + Kindermann W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kindermann W attack 1.11 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Mineiro W scores more
36%
level
26%
Kindermann W scores more
38%

Kindermann W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Atlético Mineiro W 0–0 Kindermann W

Atlético Mineiro W and Kindermann W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.