Atlético Mineiro W 2–1 Athletico Paranaense W

Atlético Mineiro W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Athletico Paranaense W

J. Carabalí 45+4', 16'

Paloma Maciel 89'

3/12/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Mineiro W46%

×Draw25%

Athletico Paranaense W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro WExpected goals in this matchAthletico Paranaense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Atlético Mineiro W

1.58

Athletico Paranaense W

1.19

Atlético Mineiro W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

0.75

1.63

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.04

Athletico Paranaense W

0.75

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.63

Athletico Paranaense W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro W ↓

Athletico Paranaense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro W or draw

71%

Atlético Mineiro W or Athletico Paranaense W

75%

Draw or Athletico Paranaense W

54%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

24%

Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

79%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

47%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

21%

Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals

70%

Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals

33%

Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

62%

Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Athletico Paranaense W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.04 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Athletico Paranaense W attack 0.75 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

46%

level

25%

Athletico Paranaense W scores more

29%

Atlético Mineiro W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

45+4'

46'

46'

68'

Bruna Cotrim← Ludmila Barbosa

68'

H. Vergara← Lilian

80'

Luana Rodrigues← I. Guerra

86'

Paola← D. Rodríguez

86'

Alê← Jajá Amorim

86'

Giovanna← Thayslane

86'

Iasmyn Vitória← Nathália

86'

Joyce← Rafinha

89'

Paloma Maciel

Atlético

Athletico

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Lindsay Camila

46'▲Emily←▼Rafa Barros

46'▲Leidiane←▼Katielle

68'▲Bruna Cotrim←▼Ludmila Barbosa

80'▲Luana Rodrigues←▼I. Guerra

86'▲Paola←▼D. Rodríguez

Atlético Mineiro W substitutes

EmilyLeidianeCotrimRodriguesPaolaLayzaTaynáCoutinhoTaluaneRodrigues

Manager: Brenno

68'▲H. Vergara←▼Lilian

86'▲Alê←▼Jajá Amorim

86'▲Giovanna←▼Thayslane

86'▲Iasmyn Vitória←▼Nathália

86'▲Joyce←▼Rafinha

Athletico Paranaense W substitutes

VergaraAlêGiovannaVitóriaJoyceDudaRenatinhaYasmin

Brasileiro Women: Atlético Mineiro W 2–1 Athletico Paranaense W

Atlético Mineiro W beat Athletico Paranaense W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 12, 2023.

Goals: J. Carabalí (16', 45+4'), Paloma Maciel (89').

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.

Atlético Mineiro W vs Athletico Paranaense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Atlético Mineiro W 2–1 Athletico Paranaense W