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Atlético Mineiro U20 vs XV de Novembro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
Unknown 84', 67', 65', 31'
Unknown 54'
5/17/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Treinamento Cidade do Galo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U2079%
×Draw13%
XV de Novembro U208%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U20
3.02
XV de Novembro U20
0.90

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 236% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
2.96
XV de Novembro U20
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
0.88
XV de Novembro U20
3.08

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par
XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U20 or draw
92%
Atlético Mineiro U20 or XV de Novembro U20
87%
Draw or XV de Novembro U20
21%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
59%
XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
95%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
80%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
57%
XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
59%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
23%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
91%
XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.96 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.02

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
79%
level
13%
XV de Novembro U20 scores more
8%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
54'
65'
67'
84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U20 vs XV de Novembro U20

Atlético Mineiro U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on May 17, 2025.

Goals: ? (31', 54', 65', 67', 84').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Cidade do Galo in Vespasiano, Minas Gerais.