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Atlético Mineiro U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
8/18/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 15Centro de Treinamento Cidade do Galo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U2062%
×Draw18%
Tres Coracoes U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U20
2.55
Tres Coracoes U20
1.37

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
2.96
Tres Coracoes U20
1.86

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
0.88
Tres Coracoes U20
2.14

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par
Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U20 or draw
81%
Atlético Mineiro U20 or Tres Coracoes U20
82%
Draw or Tres Coracoes U20
38%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
41%
Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
92%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
72%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
46%
Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
75%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
40%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.96 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.55

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
62%
level
18%
Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
19%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20

Atlético Mineiro U20 beat Tres Coracoes U20 6-1 in Mineiro U20 on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Cidade do Galo in Vespasiano, Minas Gerais.