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Atlético Mineiro U20 vs Coimbra U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Preview
18:00
Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
8/1/2026Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Winners Stage - 3
63%
Atlético Mineiro U20
model favours
63%20%18%

Atlético Mineiro U20 score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U2063%
×Draw20%
Coimbra U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U20
2.24
Coimbra U20
1.10

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
2.96
Coimbra U20
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U20
0.88
Coimbra U20
1.52

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par
Coimbra U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U20 ↓

Coimbra U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U20 or draw
82%
Atlético Mineiro U20 or Coimbra U20
80%
Draw or Coimbra U20
37%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
40%
Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
65%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
38%
Coimbra U20 1+ goals
67%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
30%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Coimbra U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.96 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.24

Coimbra U20 attack 1.33 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
63%
level
20%
Coimbra U20 scores more
18%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 27% of Atlético Mineiro U20’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DLLWW
U20
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Mineiro U20 face Coimbra U20 (Mineiro U20)

Mineiro U20 returns with Atlético Mineiro U20 hosting Coimbra U20. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.