Atlético Mineiro U17 2–0 Palmeiras U17

Atlético Mineiro U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palmeiras U17

R. Venerando 90'

R. Martins 50'

5/14/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 1Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1739%

×Draw22%

Palmeiras U1739%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro U17Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.84

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.85

Palmeiras U17

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

2.47

creates per match

2.06

1.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.47

Palmeiras U17

2.06

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.63

Palmeiras U17

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw

61%

Atlético Mineiro U17 or Palmeiras U17

78%

Draw or Palmeiras U17

61%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

21%

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

55%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

28%

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

84%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

55%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

50%

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

39%

level

22%

Palmeiras U17 scores more

39%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

R. Martins

90'

R. Venerando

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff