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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Juventude U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Juventude U17
Juventude U17
V. Lopes 90'
Jonatas 78'
Pedro Xavier 64'
Caua 32', 13', 8'
7/30/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 12Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1767%
×Draw17%
Juventude U1715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.59
Juventude U17
1.17

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Juventude U17
0.71

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Juventude U17
2.71

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Juventude U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Juventude U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
85%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Juventude U17
83%
Draw or Juventude U17
33%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
46%
Juventude U17 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
92%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
73%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
47%
Juventude U17 1+ goals
69%
Juventude U17 2+ goals
33%
Juventude U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
81%
Juventude U17 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Juventude U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Juventude U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.59

Juventude U17 attack 0.71 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
67%
level
17%
Juventude U17 scores more
15%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Caua
13'
Caua
32'
Caua
64'
Pedro Xavier
78'
Jonatas
90'
V. Lopes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Juventude U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Juventude U17 6-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 30, 2025.

Goals: Caua (8', 13', 32'), Pedro Xavier (64'), Jonatas (78'), V. Lopes (90').

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.