Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Gremio U17

Atlético Mineiro U17

Preview

20:00

Gremio U17

8/18/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 12

59%

Atlético Mineiro U17

model favours

59%19%22%

Atlético Mineiro U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

75%

over 2.5 goals

71%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1759%

×Draw19%

Gremio U1722%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro U17Expected goals in this matchGremio U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.48

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.47

Gremio U17

1.48

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

2.47

creates per match

1.32

1.63

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.47

Gremio U17

1.32

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.63

Gremio U17

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw

78%

Atlético Mineiro U17 or Gremio U17

81%

Draw or Gremio U17

41%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

38%

Gremio U17 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

91%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

70%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

44%

Gremio U17 1+ goals

77%

Gremio U17 2+ goals

43%

Gremio U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

73%

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.47

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

59%

level

19%

Gremio U17 scores more

22%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 100% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches
Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches
Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 73% over 2.5)
75% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Their last 3 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

DLDLL

U17

LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff