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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
Indio 61'
8/20/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 15Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1747%
×Draw20%
Cruzeiro U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.24
Cruzeiro U17
1.86

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 75No: 2575%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
67%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Cruzeiro U17
80%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
53%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
28%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
65%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
38%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
84%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
55%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
59%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
47%
level
20%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
33%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
Indio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Cruzeiro U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 20, 2025.

Goals: Indio (61').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.