Atlético Mineiro U17 2–2 Botafogo U17

Atlético Mineiro U17

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Botafogo U17

S. Rodrigues 90'

R. Venerando 70'

Juninho 63', 26'

6/25/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1757%

×Draw20%

Botafogo U1723%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro U17Expected goals in this matchBotafogo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.46

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.36

Botafogo U17

1.46

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

2.47

creates per match

1.30

1.63

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.47

Botafogo U17

1.30

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.63

Botafogo U17

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Botafogo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw

77%

Atlético Mineiro U17 or Botafogo U17

80%

Draw or Botafogo U17

43%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

36%

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

90%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

68%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

41%

Botafogo U17 1+ goals

77%

Botafogo U17 2+ goals

43%

Botafogo U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

71%

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Botafogo U17 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Botafogo U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.36

Botafogo U17 attack 1.30 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

57%

level

20%

Botafogo U17 scores more

23%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

63'

70'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff