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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Atletico GO U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
Jonatas 78'
Gutte 72', 2'
R. Venerando 62'
Riquelme 53'
Caua 35', 20'
9/16/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 18Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1776%
×Draw14%
Atletico GO U1711%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
3.08
Atletico GO U17
1.11

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Atletico GO U17
0.60

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Atletico GO U17
3.70

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Atletico GO U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
89%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Atletico GO U17
86%
Draw or Atletico GO U17
24%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
56%
Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
95%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
81%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
58%
Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
67%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
30%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
88%
Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Atletico GO U17 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Atletico GO U17 defence 3.70 → ÷2 → 3.08

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.60 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
76%
level
14%
Atletico GO U17 scores more
11%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Gutte
20'
Caua
35'
Caua
53'
Riquelme
62'
R. Venerando
72'
Gutte
78'
Jonatas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Atletico GO U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Atletico GO U17 7-0 in Brasileiro U17 on September 16, 2025.

Goals: Gutte (2', 72'), Caua (20', 35'), Riquelme (53'), R. Venerando (62'), Jonatas (78').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.