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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Athletico PR U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
Joao Pedro 46'
Bruninho 71'
D. Alves 66'
6/11/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1749%
×Draw21%
Athletico PR U1730%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.09
Athletico PR U17
1.61

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Athletico PR U17
1.59

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Athletico PR U17
1.71

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Athletico PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Athletico PR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
70%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Athletico PR U17
79%
Draw or Athletico PR U17
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
28%
Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
62%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
34%
Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
80%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
48%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
62%
Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Athletico PR U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Athletico PR U17 attack 1.59 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
49%
level
21%
Athletico PR U17 scores more
30%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Joao Pedro
66'
D. Alves
71'
Bruninho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Atlético Mineiro U17 1–2 Athletico PR U17

Athletico PR U17 beat Atlético Mineiro U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 11, 2025.

Goals: Joao Pedro (46'), D. Alves (66'), Bruninho (71').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.