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Atletico-MG vs Internacional de Bogota — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MGadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
8/21/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsArena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atletico-MG58%
×Draw23%
Internacional de Bogota19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.82
Internacional de Bogota
0.92

Atletico-MG creates 98% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
2.08
Internacional de Bogota
1.33

allows per match

Atletico-MG
0.50
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
81%
Atletico-MG or Internacional de Bogota
77%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
42%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
34%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
84%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
54%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
27%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
60%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
23%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
76%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.08 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.33 + Atletico-MG defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
58%
level
23%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
19%

Atletico-MG at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Atletico-MG 2–1 Internacional de Bogota

Atletico-MG beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Arena Independência in Belo Horizonte.