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Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC — Serie A 2026

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
6/23/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 11Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico-MG53%
×Draw24%
Fortaleza EC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.75
Fortaleza EC
1.07

Atletico-MG creates 64% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
1.37
Fortaleza EC
0.97

allows per match

Atletico-MG
1.17
Fortaleza EC
2.12

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.30scores more
Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
77%
Atletico-MG or Fortaleza EC
76%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
47%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
29%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
83%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
52%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
25%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
66%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
70%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.37 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Atletico-MG defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
53%
level
24%
Fortaleza EC scores more
23%

Atletico-MG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC

Atletico-MG and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in Serie A on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.