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Atletico-MG vs Democrata GV — Mineiro - 1 2020

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Democrata GV
Democrata GV
1/28/2024Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 2Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atletico-MG61%
×Draw24%
Democrata GV16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.68
Democrata GV
0.71

Atletico-MG creates 137% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
2.04
Democrata GV
0.85

allows per match

Atletico-MG
0.56
Democrata GV
1.31

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par
Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Democrata GV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
84%
Atletico-MG or Democrata GV
76%
Draw or Democrata GV
39%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
34%
Democrata GV wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
81%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
50%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
24%
Democrata GV 1+ goals
51%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
16%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
80%
Democrata GV (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.04 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.68

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + Atletico-MG defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
61%
level
24%
Democrata GV scores more
16%

Atletico-MG at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Democrata GV

Atletico-MG beat Democrata GV 4-0 in Mineiro - 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.