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Atlético Melilla vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
10/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla27%
×Draw27%
Huétor Tájar46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Melilla
1.02
Huétor Tájar
1.41

Huétor Tájar creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Atlético Melilla
0.59
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Melilla
1.71
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw
54%
Atlético Melilla or Huétor Tájar
73%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
73%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
10%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
8%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
76%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
41%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
37%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.02

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more
27%
level
27%
Huétor Tájar scores more
46%

Huétor Tájar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Melilla 0 – 1 Huétor Tájar

Huétor Tájar beat Atlético Melilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.