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Atlético Melilla vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Almería II
Almería II
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla22%
×Draw25%
Almería II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Melilla
0.94
Almería II
1.61

Almería II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

creates per match

Atlético Melilla
0.59
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Atlético Melilla
1.71
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw
47%
Atlético Melilla or Almería II
75%
Draw or Almería II
78%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
8%
Almería II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
7%
Almería II 1+ goals
80%
Almería II 2+ goals
48%
Almería II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
29%
Almería II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Almería II attack 1.51 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more
22%
level
25%
Almería II scores more
53%

Almería II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Melilla vs Almería II

Almería II beat Atlético Melilla 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.