Atlético Matogrossense 0–3 Poconé: Result & Stats

Atlético Matogrossense

FT

0 – 3

Poconé

5/18/2024

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlético Matogrossense17%

×Draw17%

Poconé66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MatogrossenseExpected goals in this matchPoconé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.79

Atlético Matogrossense

1.38

Poconé

2.79

Poconé creates 102% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

2.25

3.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Atlético Matogrossense

1.50

Poconé

2.25

allows per match

Atlético Matogrossense

3.33

Poconé

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Poconé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Matogrossense ↓

Poconé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Atlético Matogrossense or draw

34%

Atlético Matogrossense or Poconé

83%

Draw or Poconé

83%

Winning margin

Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+

7%

Poconé wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals

16%

Poconé 1+ goals

94%

Poconé 2+ goals

76%

Poconé 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)

21%

Poconé (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Matogrossense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Poconé away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Matogrossense attack 1.50 + Poconé defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Poconé attack 2.25 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlético Matogrossense scores more

17%

level

17%

Poconé scores more

66%

Poconé at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poconé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff