Atlético Matogrossense 5–1 Paulistano MT

Atlético Matogrossense

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Paulistano MT

4/29/2024

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Matogrossense34%

×Draw23%

Paulistano MT44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MatogrossenseExpected goals in this matchPaulistano MT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.83

Atlético Matogrossense

1.58

Paulistano MT

1.83

Paulistano MT creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

3.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atlético Matogrossense

1.50

Paulistano MT

0.33

allows per match

Atlético Matogrossense

3.33

Paulistano MT

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Paulistano MT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Matogrossense ↓

Paulistano MT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Atlético Matogrossense or draw

56%

Atlético Matogrossense or Paulistano MT

77%

Draw or Paulistano MT

66%

Winning margin

Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+

16%

Paulistano MT wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals

79%

Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals

47%

Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals

21%

Paulistano MT 1+ goals

84%

Paulistano MT 2+ goals

54%

Paulistano MT 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)

43%

Paulistano MT (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Matogrossense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Paulistano MT away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Matogrossense attack 1.50 + Paulistano MT defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Paulistano MT attack 0.33 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Matogrossense scores more

34%

level

23%

Paulistano MT scores more

44%

Paulistano MT at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paulistano MT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff