Atlético Matogrossense 1–5 Campo Novo

Atlético Matogrossense

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Campo Novo

6/25/2025

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Matogrossense49%

×Draw18%

Campo Novo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MatogrossenseExpected goals in this matchCampo Novo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

2.33

Atlético Matogrossense

2.83

Campo Novo

2.33

Atlético Matogrossense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

3.33

allows per match

4.17

creates per match

Atlético Matogrossense

1.50

Campo Novo

1.33

allows per match

Atlético Matogrossense

3.33

Campo Novo

4.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Campo Novo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Matogrossense ↓

Campo Novo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Atlético Matogrossense or draw

67%

Atlético Matogrossense or Campo Novo

82%

Draw or Campo Novo

51%

Winning margin

Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+

31%

Campo Novo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals

94%

Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals

77%

Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals

53%

Campo Novo 1+ goals

90%

Campo Novo 2+ goals

67%

Campo Novo 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)

60%

Campo Novo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Matogrossense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Campo Novo away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Matogrossense attack 1.50 + Campo Novo defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Campo Novo attack 1.33 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Matogrossense scores more

49%

level

18%

Campo Novo scores more

33%

Atlético Matogrossense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Matogrossense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff