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Atlético Marte vs Platense — Primera Division 2019

Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Platense
Platense
4/23/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 18Estadio Jiboa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte39%
×Draw26%
Platense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Marte
1.37
Platense
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 85 away

creates per match

Atlético Marte
1.18
Platense
0.99

allows per match

Atlético Marte
1.56
Platense
1.56

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par
Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw
65%
Atlético Marte or Platense
74%
Draw or Platense
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+
18%
Platense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
16%
Platense 1+ goals
72%
Platense 2+ goals
36%
Platense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
53%
Platense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Platense away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Platense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Platense attack 0.99 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Marte scores more
39%
level
26%
Platense scores more
35%

Atlético Marte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Marte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Marte vs Platense

Platense beat Atlético Marte 3-2 in Primera Division on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jiboa in San Vicente.