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Atlético Marte vs Dragón — Primera Division 2019

Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
PST
20:00
Dragón
Dragón
8/17/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 9Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte39%
×Draw26%
Dragón34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Marte
1.34
Dragón
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 63 away

creates per match

Atlético Marte
1.18
Dragón
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Marte
1.56
Dragón
1.51

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par
Dragón+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Dragón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw
66%
Atlético Marte or Dragón
74%
Draw or Dragón
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+
18%
Dragón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
15%
Dragón 1+ goals
71%
Dragón 2+ goals
35%
Dragón 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
53%
Dragón (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Dragón away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Dragón defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dragón attack 0.92 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Marte scores more
39%
level
26%
Dragón scores more
34%

Atlético Marte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Marte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Marte host Dragón

August 17, 2022: Atlético Marte take on Dragón in Primera Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Marte host Dragón at Estadio Cuscatlán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.