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Atlético Mansillés vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
2/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Mansillés48%
×Draw27%
UD Santa Marta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mansillés
1.40
UD Santa Marta
0.93

Atlético Mansillés creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 115 away

creates per match

Atlético Mansillés
1.29
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Mansillés
0.89
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mansillés ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Mansillés or draw
75%
Atlético Mansillés or UD Santa Marta
73%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
23%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
17%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
61%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
24%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
66%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mansillés at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mansillés attack 1.29 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Atlético Mansillés defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Mansillés scores more
48%
level
27%
UD Santa Marta scores more
25%

Atlético Mansillés at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Mansillés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Mansillés 1–1 UD Santa Marta

Atlético Mansillés and UD Santa Marta drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas in Mansilla de las Mulas.