Atletico Madrid W 5–0 Servette Chênois W

Atletico Madrid W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Servette Chênois W

12/15/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsEstadio Wanda Atlético de Madrid Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atletico Madrid W71%

×Draw18%

Servette Chênois W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico Madrid WExpected goals in this matchServette Chênois W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.81

Atletico Madrid W

2.32

Servette Chênois W

0.81

Atletico Madrid W creates 186% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

0.43

1.20

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W

1.50

Servette Chênois W

0.43

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W

1.20

Servette Chênois W

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Servette Chênois W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Servette Chênois W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw

88%

Atletico Madrid W or Servette Chênois W

82%

Draw or Servette Chênois W

29%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

48%

Servette Chênois W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

90%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

67%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

40%

Servette Chênois W 1+ goals

56%

Servette Chênois W 2+ goals

19%

Servette Chênois W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

86%

Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Servette Chênois W away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.50 + Servette Chênois W defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Servette Chênois W attack 0.43 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more

71%

level

18%

Servette Chênois W scores more

12%

Atletico Madrid W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff