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Atletico Madrid W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
Preview
16:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
3/14/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 22
Big match
52%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
52%23%25%

Atletico Madrid W win just 46% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Atletico Madrid W52%
×Draw23%
Real Sociedad W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Madrid W
1.86
Real Sociedad W
1.23

Atletico Madrid W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W
2.26
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W
0.82
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw
75%
Atletico Madrid W or Real Sociedad W
77%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
48%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
29%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
84%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
55%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
28%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
71%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
35%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
67%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.82 · 120 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.26 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more
52%
level
23%
Real Sociedad W scores more
25%

Atletico Madrid W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Atletico Madrid W
Possession-dominant
Real Sociedad W
Possession-dominant
57%Possession55%
82%Pass accuracyBiggest gap78%
13.1Shots12.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico Madrid WReal Sociedad W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Atletico Madrid W
4
Draws
2
Real Sociedad W
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
0–25–52–01–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LDLWW
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Madrid W host Real Sociedad W

March 14, 2027: Atletico Madrid W take on Real Sociedad W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.