Atletico Madrid W 3–0 Real Sociedad W

Atletico Madrid W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Sociedad W

3/1/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 22Estadio Wanda Atlético de Madrid Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Atletico Madrid W52%

×Draw23%

Real Sociedad W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico Madrid WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.23

Atletico Madrid W

1.86

Real Sociedad W

1.23

Atletico Madrid W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

2.26

creates per match

1.65

0.82

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W

2.26

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W

0.82

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw

75%

Atletico Madrid W or Real Sociedad W

77%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

29%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

55%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

28%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

71%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

35%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

67%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.82 · 120 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.26 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more

52%

level

23%

Real Sociedad W scores more

25%

Atletico Madrid W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff