Atletico Madrid W 1–2 Juventus W: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus W

A. Sarriegi 39'

B. Bonansea 56'

E. Godo 45'

11/12/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 3Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Madrid W26%

×Draw25%

Juventus W49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico Madrid WExpected goals in this matchJuventus W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.58

Atletico Madrid W

1.07

Juventus W

1.58

Juventus W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.56

1.60

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W

1.20

Juventus W

1.56

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W

1.60

Juventus W

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Juventus W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Juventus W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw

51%

Atletico Madrid W or Juventus W

75%

Draw or Juventus W

74%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

10%

Juventus W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

9%

Juventus W 1+ goals

79%

Juventus W 2+ goals

47%

Juventus W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

34%

Juventus W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Juventus W away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.20 + Juventus W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Juventus W attack 1.56 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more

26%

level

25%

Juventus W scores more

49%

Juventus W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Godo

Juventus W · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

Amaiur SarriegiPenalty cancelled

39'

A. Sarriegi↳ F. Iannuzzi

45+2'

Gabriela García

45'

E. Godo

56'

Lola Gallardo

56'

B. Bonansea↳ E. Carbonell

62'

Emma Godø

62'

J. Bartel← Ana Vitoria

62'

V. Boe Risa← G. Garcia

70'

X. Perez← S. Lloris

70'

M. Portales Nieto← R. Otermin

70'

L. Walti← E. Godo

70'

A. Vangsgaard← M. Cambiaghi

79'

L. Rodriguez← A. Medina

85'

C. Girelli← C. Beccari

85'

M. Lenzini← E. Kullberg

86'

Tatiana Pinto

90+5'

Barbara Bonansea

90+2'

A. Brighton← T. Pinto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoJuventus

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots10

3Corners2

7Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

12Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

626Total Passes277

548Accurate Passes209

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1