Atletico Madrid W vs Deportivo Alavés W — Primera División Femenina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Atletico Madrid W73%
Deportivo Alavés W11%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Madrid W creates 191% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Madrid W ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.82 · 120 matches
Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Madrid W attack 2.26 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.56
Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 73%?"
Atletico Madrid W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 73% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico Madrid W
Barcelona W
Levante W
Granad. Tenerife W
Athletic Club W
Real Betis W
Real Sociedad W
Espanyol W
Valencia W
Edf Logrono W
Sevilla W
Rayo Vallecano W
Madrid CFF W
Sporting Huelva W
Malaga W
Fundacion Albacete WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atletico Madrid W host Deportivo Alavés W on Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 10:00. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Atletico Madrid W vs Deportivo Alavés W
Atletico Madrid W beat Deportivo Alavés W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on September 25, 2022.
Goals: Ludmila (90').
The match was played at Estadio Wanda Atlético de Madrid Alcalá de Henares in Madrid.