Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander — La Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Atletico Madrid66%
Racing Santander14%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Madrid creates 145% more chances
Season form · 41 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Madrid ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 41 matches
Racing Santander away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Madrid attack 2.02 + Racing Santander defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.16
Racing Santander attack 1.00 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Atletico Madrid at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid
Osasuna
Alaves
Elche
Barcelona
Getafe
Levante
MalagaRacing Santander
Celta Vigo
Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Sevilla
Valencia
VillarrealIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atletico Madrid host Racing Santander on Sunday, 18 September 2011 at 16:00. The match is part of the La Liga 2026/2027 season.
Atletico Madrid 4 – 0 Racing Santander
Atletico Madrid beat Racing Santander 4-0 in La Liga on September 18, 2011.
Goals: R. Falcao (23', 36' pen, 55'), Adrián (78').
The match was played at Estadio Vicente Calderón (Madrid).